Australia’s May 2025 federal election is shaping up to be a pivotal moment for the country’s ESG and carbon neutral strategy. Depending on the outcome, the nation’s approach to its carbon market, climate targets, and decarbonization policies could shift dramatically—potentially impacting Australian Carbon Credit Unit (ACCU) prices and long-term investment confidence. 

Under the current Labor government, the Safeguard Mechanism—which mandates a 4.9% annual emissions baseline reduction for major facilities—has driven steady demand for ACCUs. However, a victory by the opposition Liberal-National coalition could see the mechanism softened or dismantled, with a possible withdrawal from the Paris Agreement even being considered. Such moves would likely flood the market with credits and depress ACCU prices, which have recently hovered between A$33–A$35/mtCO₂e. 

In contrast, a second Labor term—especially one supported by climate-forward Teal independents or the Greens—could tighten rules, cap emissions more aggressively, and increase carbon credit prices. Analysts expect prices could rise to A$75/mtCO₂e or beyond in such a scenario. Still, an oversupply projected between 2025 and 2028 could moderate gains, despite stronger policy frameworks. 

With over $40 billion already invested in Australia’s clean energy transition and 65% of business leaders expecting ACCU prices to exceed A$90 by 2035, the stakes are high. The Carbon Market Institute warns that weakening emissions targets under a Coalition win may trigger a wave of early exits from fixed delivery contracts, flooding the secondary market and reducing prices. 

In the near term, volatility is expected. However, ESG investors and climate-focused businesses remain optimistic that a long-term natural price floor and enduring demand for decarbonization will support the continued evolution of Australia’s carbon neutral strategy—regardless of short-term political shifts. 

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https://www.spglobal.com/commodity-insights/en/news-research/latest-news/energy-transition/042225-australia-elections-set-to-reshape-carbon-market-climate-goals-accu-prices-to-recover